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Outlooks: Projection of end-of-life vehicles

Released: 2008/02/27: See The full report

The paper presents a model for the projection of the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) and presents a baseline projection and sensitivity analyses for selected parameters. The model describes long-term developments for individual EU Member States. However, only aggregated projections are presented.

The baseline projection shows that the number of ELVs for the 25 EU Member States is likely to increase by 20-25% between 2005 and 2015. This corresponds to an increase from around 11 million to around 13.5 million ELVs.

The average weight of cars is increasing which will affect the amount of generated waste when they are scrapped. If the average weight of an ELV increases to 1 025 kg in 2015, about 14 million tonnes of waste will be generated. However, the European Commission seems to expect that the average weight will increase to 1 280 kg, and then the waste generation will be about 17 million tonnes.