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Outlooks: Outlook for waste and material flows - baseline and alternative scenarios

Released: 2005/08/09: See The full report

This report represents ETC/RWM work carried out on prospective analysis of waste and material flows. A macro-level module has been developed with the purpose of providing an assessment of the likely, future trends of waste quantities and material flows through the design of scenarios.

The projected trends for waste in the Baseline scenario show that a relative decoupling from GDP is likely for municipal waste, construction and demolition waste, glass, and packaging waste in 2020. As regards end-of-life tyres and waste oil, a relative decoupling is likely to occur in the EU-15, but not in the EU-10 and candidate countries. The generation of paper and cardboard and industrial waste in the EU-15, however, is not likely to decouple from the GDP.

For material flows, the projected trends in the Baseline scenario show that a relative decoupling is likely to take place for all materials except fossil fuels in the EU-15 and biomass in the new EU-10. For fossil fuels in the EU-10 a slight absolute decoupling is estimated in 2020.

Published as ETC/RWM working paper 2005/1

ETC/RWM working papers are Topic Centre analyses and findings, which have been prepared as part of the work programme for the EEA but which are not scheduled for publication under one of the EEA publication serials. As the studies represent a valuable contribution to knowledge sharing within the field of resource and waste management in Europe, it has been chosen to disseminate the information in the form of a working paper. Available in electronic format only.