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Wednesday, 10 August 2005 Edited by: Naja Peabody

Outlook for waste and material flows - baseline and alternative scenarios

Prospective analysis is one stablished 'building block' of EEA’s integrated assessment to support reporting and policy making. It aims at anticipating future trends of driving forces and environmental pressures. However, the existing models framework of the EEA, does not include waste and material flows which is why it had to be extended in order to generate projections on waste and material flows.

Depending on the nature of the respective waste and/or material flow, three modelling types are used for making the baseline projections for material flows and waste.

In the general modelling type, which is also the one used for the majority of material flows and waste streams, the past developments in quantities of waste/materials, economic activities, number of households/size of population have been used to analyse if there are links between these. If that is the case, and these links have been reliable in the past, they may be used for scenarios using given projections of economic activities and other demographic variables.